On the need to assess and mitigate the risk from uncontrolled re-entries of artificial space objects in view of the current and future developments in space activities

Pardini C., Anselmo L.

Uncontrolled re-entries  Re-entry risk  Casualty expectancy  Casualty probability  Orbital stages  Spacecraft 

From 1 January 2010 to 24 August 2023, 566 orbital stages and 511 spacecraft with a radar cross section > 1 m2 have re-entered without control the Earth's atmosphere. The total returned mass was 1650 metric tons, corresponding to a mean of 115 metric tons per year. 77% of the mass belonged to orbital stages, 23% to spacecraft. The uncontrolled re-entries of orbital stages are currently dominated by China, accounting for more than half of the decaying mass, while for spacecraft 2/3 of the mass belongs to American satellites. 60% of the re-entries occurred within 2 years of the launch. The ground casualty expectancy due to orbital stages was always predominant over that from spacecraft, by an average factor of nearly three. From 2010 to 2018, the total casualty probability remained substantially stable, with a mean annual value just over 1%. Since 2019, instead, the annual casualty probability of both spacecraft and orbital stages progressively increased, reaching a total value of around 3% in 2022 and 2023 (extrapolated). Even assuming a stable launch activity, in the coming years, when many of the recently launched spacecraft will start to re-enter, the casualty expectancy of orbital stages will remain basically the same, while that of spacecraft might progressively increase by a factor of 20. This would lead to an annual casualty probability of about 20%, even more in case of a further growth in launch activity, very likely based on current forecasts. The quick implementation of widespread and effective mitigation measures, like controlled de-orbiting and design for demise, is therefore necessary, to prevent the situation from deteriorating too much.

Source: IAC 2023 - 74th International Astronautical Congress, Baku, Azerbaijan, 2-6/10/2023

Publisher: Pergamon Press, PWN Polish Scientific Publishers., S.l. , Stati Uniti d'America